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Every great rivalry has a tie breaker, a game where one pulls ahead while the other is left in the dust for the foreseeable future. After the first two, extremely different, match ups in 2011 between the Tide and the Tigers, expect another competitive, but not as low scoring game like Alabama-LSU I in Tuscaloosa when LSU slipped away with a 9-6 victory over the Alabama School for the Blind Kickers, who missed 4 field goals on that day.
So which team has the advantage in Part III? Statistics would say Alabama, who has plowed over everyone in sight: their closest game was a 33-14 victory over Ole Miss. Alabama is first in every major defensive catagory except pass defense, which is still in the top 5. But that’s the same old Crimson Tide as every year. What makes Alabama seem unbeatable is the offense they have to go along with it. According to statistics on espn.go.com., Quarterback A.J. McCarron is first in the nation in passing efficiency of 182.4, with 18 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. McCarron has skyrocketed into the Heisman conversation due to his growing leadership, which shone brightly in Alabama-LSU II, when Alabama won the 2011 BCS National Championship with a 21-0 walloping of the Bayou Bengals.
But LSU has the advantage of playing at home in Death Valley. At night. Death Valley is an intimidating venue to begin with (the stadium has gotten so loud that it was mistaken as a small earthquake on the Richter Scale), but Baton Rouge is where teams go to die during the night time. Death Valley is a different world when the sun goes down; you can feel it in the air. They can smell fear. LSU puts their live tiger mascot right outside the away team’s tunnel in hopes to strike fear before ever facing the crowd.
Alabama has proven themselves in the past that they can beat the Tigers in Louisiana, with the BCS Championship in New Orleans and in 2008 when Alabama went on the road and escaped Death Valley, winning 27-21 in overtime.
#5 LSU (7-1) has shown vulnerability this year, losing to Florida and struggling against the horrendous Auburn Tigers. #1 Alabama (8-0) has seen unbeatable since beating then #8 Michigan in Dallas 41-14.
But if history has told us anything about Alabama-LSU, it is to expect the unexpected, whether it is a blowout or comes down to a trick play or 4 missed field goals. Les Miles is the king of catching people off guard and has been Nick Saban’s biggest challenge since Saban came to ‘Bama in 2007: Miles and Saban are 3-3 vs each other.
Final score: Alabama 24 LSU 13.
